DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM

BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL

STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ATELLITE IMAGES…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN

MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF

CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE

CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT…0600Z…THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM

DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH… LONGITUDE

86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. THIS

GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS

THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE

GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY

FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS

MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA…WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION…21.1 N…86.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH