BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

…DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN…

AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY

NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250

MILES…400 KM…EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES…320

KM…SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. A

NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON

THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY

ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM

FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM

FORCE…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA…WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4

INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP

TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…18.6 N…84.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB